Elon Musk’s vision of returning humanity to the Moon for the first time in over half a century is facing mounting challenges after a series of incidents involving SpaceX’s Starship rocket. Once seen as the driving force behind NASA’s Artemis III mission, Musk’s role in putting humans back on the lunar surface is now under intense scrutiny.
In the early hours before sunrise, SpaceX engineers were preparing the latest upgraded version of the Super Heavy booster for Starship. During a routine nitrogen loading procedure, the rocket suddenly cracked and exploded, sending thick plumes of smoke across the Boca Chica launch pad in Texas. SpaceX confirmed that no injuries occurred in what it described as an “anomalous event,” which took place during structural testing of the massive rocket.
The United States’ Space Launch System (SLS), developed by a consortium of aerospace companies at enormous expense, is preparing to launch astronauts into lunar orbit as a precursor to returning humans to the Moon’s surface. SpaceX’s involvement in Artemis III is integral, but the mission itself is far more complex than the Apollo landings of the 1960s and 1970s.
Under the current plan, astronauts will be launched aboard NASA’s SLS, then transfer to an upgraded Starship Human Landing System (HLS) in lunar orbit before descending to the Moon. Unlike the single-launch Apollo missions, Starship’s Moon mission will require multiple launches. The HLS system, far larger than the Apollo Lunar Module, cannot carry enough fuel to reach the Moon in a single flight. Instead, rockets must transport fuel to Starship in orbit around Earth, preparing it for the lunar journey—a process expected to require around 12 successful heavy-lift launches.
The rationale behind using Starship lies in its full reusability. Once operational, Starship could conduct repeated lunar missions, significantly reducing long-term costs. SpaceX has repeatedly emphasized that the goal is not simply to plant flags and leave footprints but to “establish a sustained human presence on the Moon.”
Despite these ambitions, NASA has faced mounting pressure to reconsider its approach. In a September Senate hearing, former NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine described the mission as “extremely complex,” warning that achieving a lunar landing before China could be unlikely. That same month, a NASA safety board raised concerns that SpaceX’s lunar lander could experience multi-year delays and face “significant challenges,” urging a reassessment of Artemis III mission objectives.
Competition in the Lunar Race
SpaceX first secured the contract to develop the lunar lander in 2021, valued at $2.9 billion. However, in October, acting NASA administrator Sean Duffy announced plans to reopen the contract and allow other aerospace companies to compete. Elon Musk responded on X by mocking Duffy as “Sean Dummy,” reflecting the tension between SpaceX and the federal agency.
The biggest potential beneficiary is Blue Origin, led by Musk’s longtime rival Jeff Bezos. Blue Origin has been developing its own lunar spacecraft intended for later Artemis missions. In December, Duffy was replaced by Jared Isaacman, a former SpaceX astronaut and Musk ally, becoming NASA’s new administrator.
These developments coincide with ongoing setbacks at Starship, as SpaceX races to prepare the rocket for its role in returning humans to the Moon for the first time in over 50 years—a milestone aligned with the goals of President Donald Trump’s second term.
Early 2025 has been particularly challenging for SpaceX. Starship, measuring 122 meters in length, experienced three consecutive failures. During one test, an explosion immediately after launch forced nearby aircraft in the Caribbean to divert to avoid falling debris. In June, another launch failed on the pad, causing damage to the infrastructure. While August and October saw partial recovery with two successful tests, the coming months are critical for ensuring Starship is on track for its next flight, expected in early 2026.
The Race Against China
NASA aims to land astronauts on the Moon in 2027 with Artemis III, ahead of China’s planned lunar efforts. However, delays with Starship and the mission’s technical complexity make the timeline increasingly tight.
Philip Lucas, professor at the Centre for Astrophysics Research at the University of Hertfordshire, commented: “It’s clear Artemis III will face delays. The earliest realistic window is likely the end of 2028, which is plausible but tight.”
Artemis II, the next critical phase of NASA’s lunar program, is scheduled for February 2026. However, in a Bloomberg interview, Isaacman left open the possibility of alternative providers, stating: “I believe both contractors understand that whichever lander is ready first to meet the Moon objectives will be our choice.”
Isaacman’s December 18 appointment was followed by a new executive order from Trump, mandating a lunar return by 2028 and the establishment of a permanent Moon outpost by 2030. The order also called for rapid review of programs running “more than 30% behind schedule” and efforts to mitigate delays.
“Realistically, if humans are to land on the Moon by 2028, it will not be possible relying solely on the ambitious Starship approach,” warned Tim Farrar of TMF Associates, a technology research firm.
In October, both SpaceX and Blue Origin submitted plans for “simplified” missions to accelerate Artemis III. Unlike SpaceX’s multiple-launch Starship approach, Blue Origin’s New Glenn second stage is designed for single-flight lunar insertion. In November, Dave Limp, Blue Origin CEO, told Ars Technica: “If NASA wants to accelerate the timeline, we will do whatever it takes.”
Farrar noted: “Interestingly, Blue Origin has been pushing into this market in recent months. They’ve had real success with New Glenn, which is often underestimated.”
The coming weeks are critical. While SpaceX prepares Starship for further tests, Blue Origin is conducting its own mission with a robotic lunar lander planned for February. Lucas emphasized that the 2028 timeline “is not entirely unrealistic; it’s feasible.”
The advantage of Starship remains its heavy-lift capacity and reusability, allowing sustained lunar presence and future bases. A fully operational Starship could redefine lunar exploration, making it possible to transport large payloads regularly, surpassing Apollo-era limitations.
However, with Trump seeking a quick political victory by returning Americans to the lunar surface, Musk faces significant pressure. As Farrar asked, “Who will dare tell the president, ‘Sorry, a 2028 landing is not possible’?”
The Moon mission represents a critical test for Elon Musk and SpaceX. Success could cement his legacy as the pioneer who returned humanity to the Moon, but repeated failures highlight the immense technical and political challenges ahead. The next year will be pivotal in determining whether Starship can deliver on its ambitious promise—or whether Musk’s lunar dream will remain grounded.
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