Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams would probably rather pretend Week 16 never happened. They collapsed against the Seattle Seahawks in their biggest game of the year, blowing a 16-point fourth-quarter lead to give up their NFC West lead and the No. 1 seed.

Not only that, but the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers both won, making the Rams’ path back to a first-round bye even more difficult. It’s now a four-horse race for the top seed between the Rams, Seahawks, Bears and 49ers. And unfortunately for Los Angeles, it will need help in order to secure the No. 1 seed – unlike the 49ers and Seahawks.

As bleak as the outlook is for the Rams – The Athletic gives them a 19% chance to win the West and a 12% chance to be the top seed – there is a glimmer of hope. And their path to a first-round bye and division title are both fairly clear, even if they’re not highly probable.

How the Rams can win the NFC West

• Rams: Win out (at Falcons, vs. Cardinals)
• 49ers: Lose 1 of 2 games (vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks)
• Seahawks: Lose 1 of 2 games (at Panthers, at 49ers)

It’s really as simple as that. If the Rams win their final two games against the Falcons and Cardinals, which they should be heavily favored in, and the Seahawks and 49ers each lose at least one game, Los Angeles will win the NFC West.

Ideally, the 49ers will lose to the Bears and the Seahawks will lose to the Panthers this week. That would put the Rams back in control of their fate entering Week 18, only needing a win over the Cardinals to secure a top-two seed.

Now for the bad news: If both the 49ers and Seahawks win their games this week, the Rams will be eliminated from the NFC West race. That will set up a winner-take-all game between the 49ers and Seahawks for the division in Week 18, with the Rams locked into the No. 5 or 6 seed no matter what.

On the bright side, that would allow them to rest their starters, just as they have in Week 18 the last two years. Of course, there’s a big difference between the fifth and sixth seed, given the potential first-round opponents. As the No. 5, they’d face the Panthers or Bucs. As the No. 6, it’d be the Eagles or Bears.

Here’s how the Rams can still win the NFC West and earn the No. 1 seed

How the Rams can earn the No. 1 seed

• Rams: Win out (at Falcons, vs. Cardinals)
• 49ers: Lose 1 of 2 games (vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks)
• Seahawks: Lose 1 of 2 games (at Panthers, at 49ers)
• Bears: Lose 1 of 2 games (at 49ers, vs. Lions)

The only thing that changes with the Rams’ path to the No. 1 seed is the Bears must lose at least one game, just like the 49ers and Seahawks. No other teams matter in Los Angeles’ race to the top seed because as long as it wins out, only the Bears, 49ers and Seahawks can potentially finish higher.

For better or worse, the 49ers and Bears play each other next week, so at least one of them will lose a game. Ideally, it’ll be the Bears winning that game, keeping the Rams in the hunt for the NFC West title because like I said, if the 49ers and Seahawks both win this week, the Rams are locked into a wild-card spot.

If the Bears beat San Francisco on Sunday Night Football and the Panthers upset the Seahawks, the Lions would then need to beat the Bears in the season finale. The question is, will the Lions even have anything to play for? If the Packers win this week against the Ravens, the Lions are eliminated from playoff contention. They could conceivably rest their starters in the finale against the Bears – which would admittedly go against Dan Campbell’s entire mantra, but it can’t be ruled out.

That’s why the Rams’ best-case scenario for the No. 1 seed changes depending on the result of Seahawks-Panthers. According to The Athletic, the Rams’ odds to earn the top seed improve to 45% if they win and the Seahawks lose. But they will then either improve to 47% with a 49ers win or drop to 38% with a Bears win.

But, if the Seahawks win, the Rams then need the Bears to win in order to keep their path to the No. 1 seed alive. If the Seahawks and 49ers both win this week, the Rams can’t earn the top seed.

Got all that? Let’s simplify things when it comes to the No. 1 seed.

Scenario No. 1

• Rams win out
• Panthers beat Seahawks
• 49ers beat Bears
• Seahawks beat 49ers

This isn’t the only path, but it would be the best-case scenario for Los Angeles. The only problem is the Seahawks are seven-point favorites over the Panthers, so an upset seems unlikely, even if the Rams did get stunned by Carolina themselves.

Scenario No. 2

• Rams win out
• Seahawks beat Panthers
• Bears beat 49ers
• Seahawks + Bears lose in Week 18

This one starts out as being more probable, with the Seahawks winning and the Bears beating San Francisco as a three-point underdog. But then Week 18 gets murky because the Rams would be counting on the 49ers to beat the Seahawks and the Lions – potentially with nothing to play for – beating the Bears.

Scenario No. 3

• Rams win out
• Panthers beat Seahawks
• Bears beat 49ers
• Lions beat Bears

If the Seahawks and 49ers both lose this week and the Rams win out, their matchup in Week 18 would only be to determine the No. 5 or 6 seed. The winner of that game would get the 5 and the loser would be the 6. In other words, it’d be meaningless to the Rams.

This scenario would then only require the Lions to beat the Bears in the finale. That’s certainly possible, especially if the Packers lose this week and keep Detroit’s playoff hopes alive.

No matter how you cut it, the Rams must win out and the Seahawks, Bears and 49ers all must lose at least one game. This all could’ve been avoided if the Rams simply held onto a 16-point fourth quarter lead Thursday, but they made their bed and must now lie in it.